Syria’s new regime, led by a group with former ties to al Qaeda, is on a mission to gain international legitimacy – and it’s already seeing some success.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, an internationally sanctioned former jihadist, has been meeting foreign dignitaries since his group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) ousted ex-President Bashar al Assad’s regime last week. He seeks to present Syria’s new regime as a friendly, inclusive and non-belligerent state.
On Sunday, he secured a meeting in Damascus with Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, who said the international community will “hopefully see a quick end to sanctions, so that we can see really a rallying around building up Syria again.”
The envoy however warned that there must be “justice and accountability for crimes,” but that they must go through “a credible justice system.”
And on Monday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she “tasked a European top diplomat in Syria to go to Damascus to make the contacts with the new government and people there,” adding that EU would consider more steps “if we see that Syria goes in the right direction.”
So far, the United States and the United Kingdom have also established contact with the rebel groups ruling the country, along with Qatar and Turkey.
Experts say that while Syria’s unfolding events present an opportunity to prevent the state from collapsing, they also come with uncertainties and risks as the country’s new leaders come to power – many with an unsavory past.
Jolani, who now goes by his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, and his group, HTS, burst out of their pocket of territory in the northwest of Syria earlier this month, swiftly taking control of the country’s second-largest city Aleppo before capturing the strategic city of Hama and then the capital Damascus.
Despite his efforts over the years to distance HTS from al Qaeda, the US designated the group a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million bounty on him. HTS and its leader are also designated as terrorists by the UN and other governments.
Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs who focuses on Syria, said that while engaging with the US- and UN-designated terrorist organization “will present its challenges, the designation presents important leverage for the United States and international partners.”
The incoming Trump administration could “use that leverage to ensure HTS walks the walk as an acceptable actor within the Syrian scene and affirm it is no longer threatening US or regional security,” Idlbi wrote for the Atlantic Council, adding that this can be done through dialogue with Turkey, which had long been at odds with Assad.
On Saturday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington has had direct contact with HTS, in the first public confirmation of direct contact between the US and the group.
“Yes, we’ve been in contact with HTS and the other parties,” Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan, adding that the contact was direct. He gave no details on when the contact was made or at what level. There is no legal barrier to speaking with a designated terrorist group.
The rebel leader has argued that some extreme Islamist practices had “created a divide” between HTS and jihadist groups early on, and claimed to oppose some of the more brutal tactics used by other jihadi groups which led to his severing ties with them. He also claimed that he was never personally involved in attacks on civilians.
It is unclear whether Western states will lift the terror designation or what will become of the pre-existing sanctions that were placed on the former regime.
Asked whether the terror designation hinders the US’ ability to speak to the rebel group, and whether the designation will be lifted, a senior state department official told reporters last week that the US is watching whether HTS’s statements “are translated into actions on the ground.”
“We’re very much hopeful they will be,” the official said.
Syria’s economy has been cripped for years by Western sanctions. Among the harshest is the US’ 2019 Caesar Act, which imposed wide-ranging sanctions that restricted individuals, companies or governments from economic activities assisting Assad’s war effort. The act rendered the entire economy untouchable. According to the World Bank, the county’s economy shrank by more than half between 2010 and 2020.
As of 2022, poverty was affecting 69% of Syria’s population, according to the World Bank. Extreme poverty affected more than one in four Syrians in 2022, the World Bank said, adding that this number likely deteriorated after a devastating earthquake in February 2023.
Idlbi, of the Atlantic Council, wrote that while Assad’s fall presents an opportunity, it is “not a panacea and could lead to further instability if not carefully managed.”
“The Biden and Trump administrations must adopt a balanced and strategic approach, focusing on inclusive governance, humanitarian support, and regional stability,” Idlbi wrote. “An opportunity of the kind that now presents itself in Syria comes only once.”
