With America barreling toward Election Day on Nov. 5, the path to 270 electoral votes for former President Trump is looking more promising with each passing day.
Make no mistake about it, while the unprecedented presidential campaign of 2024 remains a razor-thin affair, there are several indicators showing that Trump is running stronger than he did in both 2016 and 2020.
Perhaps the most crucial factor is what voters think about the direction of the country under the failed leadership of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over the past four years. According to polling averages, the right track-wrong track numbers are underwater by a stunning 37%,with Biden and Harris at the helm.
Some polls have the wrong direction number coming in as high as 79% while others found that only 18% believe we are on the right track. In the face of massive inflation, open borders and crime around the country, many people are wondering what these 18% are thinking.
Among key demographic groups, there’s even more reason for optimism for Trump. In 2016 when he was elected president, Trump received 8% of the African American vote. Now, polls show him with the support of a much-improved 29% of Black voters.
Recent reporting from the Wall Street Journal has indicated that losing Black men at the ballot box is of primary concern for Democrats: ‘Polling has shown Trump receiving a higher percentage of support among Black voters, particularly among men, than in past campaigns, raising the possibility he could disrupt Democrats’ voting coalition.’
Similarly, with Hispanic voters, Trump received 28% of the vote in 2016, and today polls show Trump jumping to 47% support among Latinos. When even the New York Times is writing things like ‘Vice President Kamala Harris’s support among Hispanic voters is in dangerously low territory for Democrats’ and ‘Almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory,’ it’s obviously cause for great concern on the left.
The reason for the gravitation toward Trump’s candidacy is likely a simple one: families were more prosperous, our streets were safer and our border was secure when he was in office. Trump’s commonsense policies achieved positive results regardless of one’s socioeconomic status or background.
And notwithstanding the misinformation du jour you hear from Harris and her allies in the liberal mainstream media, the 2024 presidential election is a referendum on the disastrous policies of the incumbent – in this case the sitting vice president – who has been in power for almost four years.
The radical Biden-Harris agenda caused the cost of living to spiral out of control for millions of American families now struggling to make ends meet. Reckless open border policies – and the conscious decision to reverse Trump’s successful border security measures – have caused an unnecessary catastrophe that we’ll be dealing with for decades. And weakness on the world stage has emboldened our enemies around the globe.
The crystal-clear contrast on display in this campaign is unmistakable. Bold colors not pale pastels, as President Ronald Reagan used to say. Under President Trump, we had essentially no inflation, our border was secure and the world was at peace.
Leadership matters and elections do indeed have consequences. Americans are not better off today than they were four years ago when Trump left office.
And perhaps therein lies the reason that Trump is faring better in the polls now than he was at the same time of the races in both 2016 and 2020.
As of this writing, Trump is leading Harris – albeit narrowly – in the seven most critical battleground states. The state of the race, according to public polling data, was far different in previous campaigns.
At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading in North Carolina by 3.3 percentage points, but Trump ended up carrying the state. In 2020, Biden was leading in North Carolina as well, but Trump ended up winning the Tar Heel State again.
Fast-forward to 2024 and now polls show Trump with a small lead in this critically important state. So, if the Trumpian trademark of outperforming survey data continues, the former president is well-positioned to once again carry North Carolina’s coveted 16 electoral votes.
In Pennsylvania and the fight for its all-important 19 electoral votes, an average of polls shows Trump in the lead. But in 2016 and 2020 at this time, Clinton and Biden were ahead of Trump by 6.7 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively. As it turned out, Trump carried the Keystone State in 2016 and did much better in 2020 than the polls were predicting.
Similar trends are happening in other swing states. Look no further than Arizona, where in 2016 polls showed Trump winning the state by 0.7 points at this time of the race, but he ended up carrying the state by 3.5 percentage points. In 2020, polls placed Biden in the lead by 3.9 points, but he took the Grand Canyon state by just 0.3 points.
Contrast the Biden-Trump numbers with what’s happening this time around, where the average of polls has Trump leading the battle for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in the lead-up to the race, just like in 2016 when he won the state.
When analyzing polling data from the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential races, perhaps the most stunning numbers come out of Midwestern heavyweight Wisconsin.
In 2016, it appeared that Hillary Clinton was in the driver’s seat in the Badger State with a 6.4-point lead at this point in the race, but Trump won the state. And in 2020, the polling average had Biden out in front by six points too, but he only managed to hang on by a 0.6 percent margin.
Of course, Biden’s bloated lead in the state leading up to the election was buoyed by a Washington Post-ABC poll taken in late October that showed Biden ahead by 17 points. Many believe that irresponsible polls like this amount to election interference because they may end up suppressing the vote for the candidate who they say is trailing.
And in Wisconsin in 2020, where the margin came down to just 20,000 votes, who knows what could have happened if voters had more accurate polling to consider before going – or not going – to the polls. Currently in Wisconsin, the polls show the race a dead heat, which is good news for Trump if history is any indication.
As Americans cast their ballots across the country, there’s ample reason to believe that the wind is at Donald Trump’s back. And if this turns out to be a ‘change’ election in the tradition of 1980, voters may very well break dramatically to ‘Trump the challenger’ at the very end.